... Fourth Quarter 2018 Performance And Commentary. What the hell happened?

But the trade war with China has been the most compelling and impactful, not only to the countries directly involved, but to much of the global economy.

The past performance of any investment or financial product is not a guarantee of future performance. This is a lesson I have long since learned (which I first mentioned after selling Braemar Shipping (OTC:BGSLY) in 2017), and these days, I'm much more cautious about investing in highly cyclical commodity companies. For me, the best way to measure the performance of the companies I'm invested in is to look at their dividends, which are a concrete return from investing which is not subject to any of the "adjustments" or other accounting tricks. October Review and Outlook - November 2, 2018. AstraZeneca share price had held up well, but its results were flat-lining, and I was concerned about the company's use of ever-more debt to fund its massive research & development needs.

If that margin of safety disappears, as I think it did with Beazley, then you may be left with an asset which is worth less than its current market value. Weakness was generally broad based across almost all sectors of the economy as concerns of recession mounted in the face of continued Fed Rate increases. Since we can’t directly buy shares of an index, I also show you an example of the signals if they were applied to the next best thing: funds. The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods.

To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including: The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the "S&P") is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. For instance, there were several times in 2018 when the stock market outlook had been in an uptrend for a few weeks before any of my individual stock trades were executed. There was a temporary truce achieved following the Group of 20 summit, but there was no definitive agreement reached. 2018 was not exactly a record year for the UK stock market, with the FTSE All-Share and my model portfolio falling by 9% and 13% respectively. Most investors are bound to make a mistake of one kind or another each year, and in 2018, I made one mistake which stands out. Here’s a comparison of adding a version of the ADX to outlook. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin. One measure of market volatility is the intraday swings in stock prices. However, as stock prices faltered, gold prices pushed closer to their early-year values, finally closing 2018 at $1,284.70. In November, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, an increase of 197,000 from a year earlier.

The total annual dividends from both portfolios have marched upwards, reasonably progressively. Last year, overall performance was okay, but I knew the outlook could be improved. Looking at the performance table above, the trading system failed spectacularly. This page contains references to products from one or more of our advertisers. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost about 10 percent of its … And there’s a big disconnect. Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! This pattern is also visible in three of the six loss-making investments I've made since 2011: The other three loss-making investments were more to do with: 1) excessive debt-fuelled acquisitions; 2) balance sheet weakness; and 3) paying too much for a highly cyclical company. Oh, and the federal government shut down in late December due to a budgetary stalemate between President Trump and Congress, principally over funding for a border wall. Market Performance (1872-2018) Today’s animation comes to us from The Measure of a Plan, and it shows the performance of the U.S. market over different rolling time horizons using annualized returns. The housing market hasn’t picked up the pace and is generally lagging behind other economic mainstreams. Each of the benchmark indexes listed above fell well below their respective 2017 year-end closing values. 2018 Performance Review And Lessons Learned.

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